Sunday, January 06, 2008

New Hampshire Saturday Night Debate- Clinton Hot, Obama Cool

TV is a hot medium and although it didn't get THAT hot at the four way ABC Democratic debate on Saturday night, Hillary Clinton might have blown her single opportunity to score big.

Quip of the night had to go to Bill Richardson for his remark that he had seen more civil exchanges during hostage negotiations. But the message of Obama and Edwards that the Clintons were yesterday and voters wanted change is likely to resonate better than the 35 years of experience assertion from Hilary.

Thirty five years? Which campaign consultant thought that would be good to say? Or was that Hillary"s mistake? Or Bill's blunder? It played right into the hands of the Obama/Edwards point about change is better than experience. Iowa stats already showed that dog don't hunt and will definitely not resonate with New Hampshire's independents and Democratic progressive activists who make up the core of New Hampshire primary voters.

New Hampshire Democrats are not the same as New Hampshire Republicans. Southern New Hampshire is full of ex-Massachusetts imports. Although some of them are conservative Manchester Guardian suburban Republicans, many of them are not.

At this point on Sunday I think that Obama and Clinton will be within two points of each other with Edwards falling a tad further behind. McCain will edge Romney but not by as much as the MSM are predicting right now. McCain is not conservative enough for many New Hampshire Republicans. Ron Paul could do better here too than the MSM pundits may think.

Is that the final word on New Hampshire? Not hardly. We still have another two days and the ground war, not the media war will determine what happens now.

Maybe the young voters will see more e-mails and Facebook messages from Obama than from Clinton. But the MSM still hasn't figured out how Obama energized young voters in Iowa. Old folks and pundits watch TV. Young people don't.


Blogger Xavier Lopez-Ayala said...

Hillary's performance was strong. I would be frustrated, too, if the MSM was giving a pass to my opponent, while creating the narrative of my defeat months in advance.

Having been in Iowa, I don't think it was so much Obama "energizing" anyone, as his campaign expanding their universe to include them. Clinton, Edwards, et. al. were using the universe of previous caucus-goers and voters, and their campaigns did very little voter registration. Obama, on the other hand, used this standard universe and blew it up, adding so many new potential voters that it's no surprise we saw a huge increase.

But, with all this "energizing," Iowa still saw a small percentage of its population turn out on caucus-night.

10:49 PM  

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