Friday, January 04, 2008

REAL Iowa Message -- Real Change -- Not More of the Same

A 68% message was delivered to Democrats in Iowa last night.

Don't look back -- look forward to real change.

Progressives won Iowa in a landslide on Thursday with the Barack Obama/John Edwards message of change the real winner. The Obama-Edwards message won, but Obama clearly said it better and more positively taking the George Lakoff approach to heart. While Iowa voters may have preferred Obama to Edwards, the clear message was a large majority don't want to look back to another Clinton in the White House -- they wanted a clear change.

Yesterday afternoon we predicted Obama with 39%. We were mistaken. He only got 38%. We predicted Edwards with 28%. He got 30%. My prediction totaled 69% for Obama and Edwards and it came out to be just 68%.

I underestimated Hilary Clinton's Iowa support at 24%, but she got 29%. I didn't realize Emily's List was making a huge effort for Hilary. Despite that, Obama won more support from women than Hilary did.

I knew Obama had targeted young people and independents for special attenti0n, but I wondered whether that tactic would work. Young people still turn out less than older people that Hilary had targeted. Surprisingly, the Obama strategy worked. Young is in, old is out.

Was history made, or will New Hamphire tell us a different story? More about that later.

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